QPRC 2016

Analysis of Reliability Data: Life Distributions or Recurrence Analysis?

David Trindade

Bloom Energy

Abstract

In analyzing reliability data from repairable systems, engineers may incorrectly use a life distribution to model the times between failures. However, such an analysis, which disregards the time order of the observations, can lead to invalid conclusions.  A recurrence analysis model is the appropriate technique for modeling reliability data from repairable systems. This talk will include examples of the improper application of the life distribution approach to repairable system data and the valuable and insightful information obtained when the correct recurrence analysis methodology is applied. The talk will also highlight some limitations of mean time between failures (MTBF) as a reliability summary statistic and describe how MTBF values reported in the literature can be artificially inflated. Examples will be illustrated using JMP’s reliability analysis capabilities.