QPRC 2016

Improving Risk Assessment in U.S. Navy Campaign Analysis

Thomas W. Lucas, Mary L. McDonald, Brian L. Morgan, Paul J. Sanchez, Susan M. Sanchez, Harrison C. Schramm, Jerry R. Smith, and Stephen C. Upton

Naval Post Graduate School

Abstract

Decisions and investments made today determine the assets and capabilities comprising the U.S. Navy for decades to come.  The nation has many options about how best to equip, organize, supply, maintain, train, and employ our naval forces.  These decisions involve large sums of money and impact our national security.  Navy leadership uses simulation-based campaign analysis to measure risk for these investment options.  Campaign simulations, such as the Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM), are complex models that generate enormous amounts of data.  We describe a suite of automated post-processing tools, developed for STORM campaign analysis studies, that have helped realize a 33% reduction in study time and a 16% reduction in study cost.  We also provide an overview of the more general use of large-scale designs for simulation experiments.